February 7, 2010, Miami Florida, Super Bowl 44. With the rain pouring and the flash bulbs flickering, the New Orleans Saints attempted and converted one of the greatest play calls in not just Super Bowl history, but NFL history. This was not a hail mary or a miraculous run. No, this was a gutsy, downright surprising call to begin the second half, an onside kick. New Orleans would go on to score on that drive and continue to outscore the Colts 25-7 in the second half to win the Super Bowl. This is one end of the onside kick spectrum. The other end is the most recent downturn in conversion of the onside kick which has forced the hand of the NFL rules committee. With the recent changing of the onside kick sequence rules, the conversion rate of the onside kick has fallen from 21% in 2017 to 13% in 2019.
This week, the NFL sent potential rule changes to each team and on the docket once again was the potential shift from the onside kick completely. The proposal states that NFL teams would have the opportunity to either kickoff traditionally or take a 4th and 15 from their own 25-yard line. If they convert they keep possession and if they do not then the opposing team takes over in possession at the dead ball spot. This rule did not receive much traction last offseason when the Broncos initially suggested it but it is now receiving some support per Tom Pelissero. While teams would still be able to attempt a traditional onside kick, the advent of a new avenue to keep the football when you are down is very intriguing. Teams last year converted 4th and 15 about 17%, therefore you'd statistically have a better chance. Also, theoretically if you just had the defense on the field for an extended period of time trying to score a touchdown your chance of conversion would go up as well.
This is why I find the potential in this rule very intriguing. What this does for the excitement in the final few minutes of a game is very interesting. Personally, I believe this is a great idea to add entertainment value to a game that already has a pretty substantial amount. It forces coaches to think about this pretty much the entire fourth quarter depending on the score of the game. The cliche "no lead is safe" is obvious in sports like hockey, basketball, and baseball, and sometimes in the NFL (just ask the Texans, Titans, and 49ers). But, in general in the NFL, if you take a 10 point lead into the fourth your winning probability is 91%. If your still in front mid-way through the fourth, your winning percentage is now at 97%.
While it is not my intention to bore you with numbers, I just want to let you know that a 10 point lead in the NFL in the 4th usually symbolizes curtains for your opponents. But, with this new rule change a first down on 4th and 15 from the 25 puts you about 22 yards away from the necessary field goal to tie the game. This completely changes the fabric of the contest and potentially the outcome of your season. Again, teams convert this down and distance south of 20% but it gives coaches and players something new to think about in the most crucial parts of the contest. While it would take years to see what the full impact would be, I'd argue that this would also not affect the fourth quarter, but could potentially seep into the earlier portions of the second half as well. More aggressive coaches would likely be playing these scenarios out in their head because points would become a premium. While no coach would anticipate their own squad falling apart, the only way to insure this collapse didn't happen would be to score enough points to put them completely out of reach. If more points doesn't sound more intriguing to you then I don't know what else will.